Training

Pangea Formazione delivers high-level training courses aimed at forming specific managerial roles on probabilistic analysis of decisions with business and industrial applications. Courses, lasting one or more days, are planned accordingly to the client's interests, needs and objectives. Specific case-studies concerning the client's business activities are devised and carried out.

 

TOPICS OF COURSES

In everyday life, in both personal and professional activities, we have to make decisions and to face uncertainty: uncertainty about future events and their consequences. A rational decision making process requires probability theory, but the rules of reasoning under uncertainty are somehow counter-intuitive. We need appropriate tools to deal with these difficulties.

Because Bayesian (or belief) networks can be used to handle any problem involving uncertainty, as they are a powerful tool for business decision making. This course introduces the theoretical basis of Bayesian networks, contains a discussion of several case-studies in which they revealed to be successful, and an introduction to the software used for implementing them.

Risk management concerns every business and industrial enterprise. The cornerstone of an efficient risk management process is represented by the quantification of the uncertainty related to possible scenarios and their consequences. A related concept is that of reliability (from unit faults, to power plant failure or survival analysis in an environmental context). A unified description of these topics can be successfully faced within the Bayesian approach and its methodologies.

Game theory is the mathematical analysis of conflict and cooperation between rational agents. Conceived and mostly developed in the second half of the last century, it finds its natural application in diverse areas, from behavioural economy to negotiations, and from social network analysis to complex market strategies ideation.

Fraud detection, prevention and contrast are key activities in a number of managerial and industrial endeavours. The Bayesian approach, as a tool for the uncertainty management, is particularly suited to the detection of fraudulent behaviours: this task requires the evaluation of the probability of a fraud being taking place on the basis of client's behaviour. It's a typical problem of inferring the cause (fraud) from the observed effects (customer behaviour). In this context, Bayesian networks or artificial intelligence learning algorithms represent a reliable support to the decision making and risk management process.

This course is aimed at discussing the psychological "biases" that interfere with the decisional process and that, somehow unconsciously, lead us to evaluation blunders, luring us away from making the right decisions. A careful analysis of these biases comes from recent experiments and studies in the field of "neuroscience", that show how those biases are deeply interwoven with the evolutionary process that our brain underwent. Being aware of this dynamics allow us to limit its influence on our decisions.

Logical rules being used in forensics to assess evidentiary value of several elements as a whole are often counterintuitive. This is even truer when those elements are scientific evidences and are presented in terms of probabilities. Literature about justice miscarriages resulting from an incorrect probabilistic reasoning is rich. A revision of the degree of certainty deriving from evidences in the practice law can be achieved through the Bayesian reasoning.

Data mining represents an innovative and interdisciplinary research field, whose aim is to single out, from a large data set, features and patterns that could not be extracted by any other means. Possible areas of applicability ranges from marketing research, fraud detection to customer management, and the applied tools are neural networks, graphs and learning algorithms.

Skilled on all the most popular programming languages (C, Java, R, Python, Fortran, MySQL, MATLAB, IDL, Mathematica) Pangea Formazione develops and produces in-house any tool needed for its consulting activity. Moreover Pangea provides training courses which are user-friendly, aimed at allowing clients to manipulate the software product according to their needs.

Medical doctors must make decisions continuously, when they define a diagnosis or when they choose a therapy over others on the basis of information they gather; symptoms, results of medical tests and experience. Often this process lead to common assessment mistakes, that could depend on the cognitive mechanisms taking place when we deal with uncertainty. When a cost-benefit judgement is needed, the medical reasoning is examined from every side and practical aspects are discussed in this course.

The course is intended to analyse the relationship between ethics and enterprise, within the framework of the decision theory. In fact, the principles of decision theory may be applied to the social and cultural context as well, addressing a more conscious understanding of uncertainty. The analysis will focus on the relationship between rational decisions and "fair" decisions, on the moral decision managers need to face and on the issue of the company mission.

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Henri Poincare

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