Training

Jointly developed by MBDA and Pangea Formazione, the MDBA's Decision Making School is run by Paolo Agnoli and Fabio Priuli.

Uncertainty is involved in several phases of the decision making process, where it plays a role in various domains: an action can lead to different outcomes (probabilistic domain), we do not have all the information about alternatives and the corresponding outcomes (cognitive domain) and we cannot always state what we prefer and why (psychological domain). Hence the decision theory involves several domains like logic, philosophy, probability calculation, statistical inference, economy, neuroscience and psychology.
The Decision Making School (DMS) is a collection of seminar and high-level training courses for managers on the diverse aspects of the rational decision theory. It is addressed to managers and to other company administrators asked to make decisions about allocation of all type of resources (human, economic...) in the private or public domain, with a particular focus on moral decisions, on ethic and profit relationship and on company missions. The school represents an original bridge between innovative results of academic research and its application to industrial and business management problems.


CONTENTS

The DMS main purpose is to show the three necessary steps to make rational decisions: the quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic terms; the description of the possible actions outcomes in terms of utility; the selection of the action that provides the maximum expected utility according to previously estimated probabilities.
Following the scientific point of view, the school focuses on the fundamentals of coherence in decision theory. These concepts are implemented in a large variety of case-studies presented during the course.
Lectures are given by university professors as teachers.


THE DMS IS COMPOSED OF FIVE DIFFERENT MODULES

Every decision that is taken without following a correct logical reasoning is proved to be absurd or incoherent. The main point of this module is to provide the fundamental tools needed to assign a quantitative measure to the uncertainty regarding different events.

These lectures focus on a new field of psychological research: Neuroeconomy. It deals with the study of all mechanisms operating in the brain that contribute to the decision making process, either helping or disturbing the optimal choice selection.

Game theory deals with the problem of decision making when more than one agent is present. This means that choices and intention of other agents have to be taken into account in the process of the optimal decision selection, and hence probabilities corresponding to the events are interrelated. After an introduction to theoretical and scientific aspects, a series of examples are discussed.

Decision theory principles have cultural other than technical implications since they require a more conscious management of uncertainty and of the decision process. In these lectures we analyse the relation between ethics and business, between rational decisions and "fair" decisions, the mission of the company issue and the moral decisions. <7p>

In this module, a large variety of case-studies concerning different industrial and business sectors are analyzed and discussed. Through these examples, participants actively participate and put into practice all the presented techniques. They practice probability assessment and updating through Bayes theorem; the assessment of an action expected value; the use of utility functions to calculate the expected gain for a given decision; the modelling of decision trees; recognizing the more important and common type of psychological mistakes occurring during the decision process. Participants are encouraged to propose problems and possible applications taken from their own experience and work domain, with the idea of developing them into specific case-studies to be analyzed during or after the courses.

È preferibile prevedere anche senza certezza alcuna,
che non prevedere affatto
Henri Poincare

This website uses cookies to allow us to see how the site is used. The cookies cannot identify you. Cookies are files stored in your browser and are used by websites to help personalise your web experience. By continuing to use our website without changing the settings, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. However you can change your cookie settings at any time.