Every decision that is taken without following a correct logical reasoning is proved to be absurd or incoherent. The main point of this module is to provide the fundamental tools needed to assign a quantitative measure to the uncertainty regarding different events.

These tools are grounded on the notion of subjective probability: probability is defined as the degree of belief assigned to the event fulfilment, on the basis of the amount of knowledge available of the considered event. The Bayesian approach is named after a famous theorem of probability theory, which allows for the update of beliefs with new experience and information, making it suitable for decision theory. Lectures in this module include an introduction to the concept of Bayesian probability and inference, and the description of the most recent techniques and operative tools for the rational decision making. Among the presented tools, one of the more important is the Bayesian network, a graphical tool that allows us to model the complex probabilistic relations between variables. Bayesian networks can be applied in the modelling of several problems encountered in every management activity, allowing the high level manager to actively contribute to the modelling while the programming part is left to the technical experts.

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Henri Poincare

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